Insights and Perspectives

GSI Labor Market Forecast: January 2024

Wed, 31 Jan 2024 20:20:00 GMT

Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast and unemployment rate forecast from internal data on the number of job openings/searchers/applications and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions' state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced the following forecasts for the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate. These are the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from The Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly surveys that measure labor market trends, The Current Employment Statistics (CES; also known as "the payroll" or "the establishment" survey) and The Current Population Survey (CPS; also known as "the household survey").

GEOGRAPHIC SOLUTIONS PREDICTS: Jobs will increase in January by 255,000 in keeping with the strengthening trend seen since October last year.

In Comparison:
Job Creation averaged 225,000 per month in 2023. Strong consumer activity is expected to continue in the early part of this year and contributed to the higher estimate for January employment.

The Chart shows shaded ranges that represent 80% and 90% probabilities of the actual employment result.
Geographic Solutions' employment forecast is represented by the horizontal blue line to the right.

GEOGRAPHIC SOLUTIONS PREDICTS:
The unemployment rate will level out at 3.8% for January, just above its December rate of 3.7%.

To Be Noted:
Last month the labor force participation rate had its largest one-month drop in almost 3 years, preventing a rise in the unemployment rate. That is unlikely to be repeated in January.

This chart shows shaded ranges that represent 80% and 90% probabilities of the actual unemployment rate result.
Geographic Solutions' unemployment rate forecast is represented by the horizontal blue line to the right.

On Friday, February 2nd, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release their two monthly surveys,
The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey and The Current Population Survey (CPS).

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: December 2023

Wed, 03 Jan 2024 15:13:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for December 2023 on Friday, January 5th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in December by 231,000, a slight pick-up even as Geographic Solutions sees slowing job growth over the next six months. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings and job applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites.

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.8% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for December, a slight increase from its November rate of 3.7%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job applications, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: November 2023

Wed, 06 Dec 2023 14:54:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for November 2023 on Friday, December 8th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in November by 122,000 as Geographic solutions sees slowing job growth over the next six months. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job applications, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 4.0% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for November, a slight increase from its October rate of 3.9%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: October 2023

Mon, 30 Oct 2023 19:16:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for October 2023 on Friday, November 3rd. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in October by 226,000 as Geographic Solutions sees slowing job growth over the next six months. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions' state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.8% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for October, maintaining its September rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions' state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: September 2023

Tue, 03 Oct 2023 15:04:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for September 2023 on Friday, October 6th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in September by 153,000 as Geographic solutions sees slowing job growth over the next six months that might even turn into job loss for some months. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job applications and job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.8% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for September, maintaining its August rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, job searchers, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

Employment Steadily Expands in April

Mon, 08 May 2023 17:22:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for April 2023 on Friday, May 5th. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.

Employment in the U.S. rose by 253,000 jobs. The job results were above the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 212,000. The forecast outperformed the WSJ estimate of 180,000. April’s unexpectedly strong results are the second disruption to the slowing trend we have seen in hiring, since July 2022. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job counts and gross posts filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

The unemployment rate declined to 3.4%, tying a 50-year low. The Geographic Solutions forecast had anticipated an uptick to 3.6%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

Job creation was strongest in Education & Health Services (77,000). Leisure & Hospitality, Professional & Business Services, and the Government sectors were the other major contributors to employment. All industries saw at least some positive job growth.

Leisure & Hospitality and Government are the only major sectors to remain below their pre-pandemic employment levels.

Labor force participation maintained its 62.6% rate from the previous month. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment declined to 6.6%.

The April employment report is a great sign that the labor market is steadily adding jobs in the face of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, even though revisions decreased new job creation by a combined 149,000 in February and March. Additionally, April shows the fallout of the regional bank failures in March which do not seem to have had a dramatic impact. The possibility of avoiding a sustained period of job loss is still a challenge but appears somewhat more feasible after April’s performance.

Job Creation Jumps as Omicron Fears Subside in February

Fri, 04 Mar 2022 13:52:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for February 2022 on Friday, March 4^th. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.

Employment in the U.S. rose by 678,000 jobs. The jobs report exceeded the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 507,000 but is much more in line with the actual results than the last several volatile months (which also included volatile revisions to previous reports). The Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast outperformed the Wall Street Journal estimate of 440,000 new jobs. The Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast was derived from internal data on the number of job searchers, job applications, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, below the Geographic Solutions and WSJ forecasts of 3.9%. The unemployment rate forecast used internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job applications, job severances, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

Job creation was strongest in Leisure & Hospitality (179,000). Education & Health Services (112,000) and Professional & Business services (103,000) also had strong showings for the month. Every major industry saw job increases in February.

Professional & Business Services; Trade, Transportation, & Utilities; and Financial Activities are above their pre-pandemic highs with construction poised to meet its pre-pandemic level next month.

The labor force participation rate increased to 62.3% from the previous month. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment ticked up to 7.2%. A growing labor force participation rate along with strong job growth indicate that the labor market is on a strong trajectory.

The February employment figures built upon the encouraging performance in the jobs market since October of last year. While the labor market has shown resiliency during the Omicron variant, its gradual alleviation has provided an extra boost for job increases not seen since before the Delta variant took full effect last summer. However, some potential hurdles remain. The Federal Reserve will begin its path of interest rate increases in March to combat the high rates of inflation that have emerged over the last year. With inflation a top concern among consumers, there is also the worry that the Russian invasion of Ukraine will send energy prices soaring. These developments will need to be watched closely going forward, but February overall was a positive month in the U.S. labor market.