Insights and Perspectives

National Second Chance Month: The Impact of Reentry Programs

Wed, 10 Apr 2024 19:45:00 GMT

What is Second Chance Month?
Started in 2017 by the Prison Fellowship, National Second Chance Month is an national observance celebrated in April that aims to raise awareness and support for reentry programs that help reintegrate incarcerated individuals back into society before and after their release. During Second Chance Month, human service organizations, communities, and government agencies across the country come together to shed light on the challenges faced by incarcerated individuals as they reenter society.

The Role of Reentry Programs
Reentry programs play a pivotal role in the process. They provide a range of services designed to address the needs of individuals who are transitioning back into society. These programs offer job training, educational opportunities, housing assistance, counseling, as well as soft and hard skills.

Organizations, such as the California Prison Industry Authority (CALPIA), have been at the forefront of innovative reentry programs, helping prepare incarcerated individuals for productive lives outside of prison, thus lessening the likelihood of recidivism. The organization offers 128 nationally recognized accreditations, including programs in AutoCAD, computer coding, metal fabrication, optical, dental, underwater welding, and more. Their latest program, Entry to Employment (E2E), aims to connect second-chance employers to CALPIA’s database of skilled and willing workers to help them find a job prior to release.

“We provide meaningful job skills and training to approximately 5,700 incarcerated individuals with the ultimate goal that they never return to prison,” said Bill Davidson, CALPIA’s General Manager. “Our programs are helping to reduce recidivism while also improving conditions in prison and providing greater public safety, along with saving taxpayer money.”

Reducing Recidivism

In 2022, the Bureau of Justice Statistics reported that almost 448,400 incarcerated people were released from state and federal correctional facilities. Unfortunately, a majority of these individuals are likely to be rearrested within 10 years of their release, according to an earlier study conducted by the U.S. Department of Justice. However, there is hope in reducing the rate of recidivism by providing these individuals with the necessary tools, skills, and resources through reentry programs such as those spearheaded by CALPIA.

Breaking the cycle of recidivism requires addressing common barriers such as lack of education or life skills, unemployment, substance abuse, and mental health issues. However, it's important to note that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to reentry. While providing personalized plans that cater to individuals' unique needs can greatly increase their chances of success, it can be challenging due to limited staffing, funding, and resources in many organizations and government agencies.

Despite these challenges and limitations, reentry programs and services, such as those offered by CALPIA, are making a difference in the lives of individuals by providing them with stability and opportunities. In fact, a recent study from the University of California, Irvine found that incarcerated individuals who participated in CALPIA’s programs have lower rates of rearrests, reconvictions, and reincarcerations compared to those who did not participate in CALPIA.

What’s Next?
National Second Chance Month serves as a reminder that everyone deserves an opportunity to rebuild their lives and contribute positively to society. Through the implementation of effective reentry programs, we can create a more inclusive and supportive community for all individuals, regardless of their past mistakes. Together, we can create a society that believes in second chances and provides the necessary support for successful reintegration.

A Tale of Two Surveys in May

Fri, 02 Jun 2023 17:07:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for May 2023 on Friday, June 2nd. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.

Employment in the U.S. rose by 339,000 jobs. The job results were significantly above the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 189,000 which was virtually tied with the WSJ estimate of 190,000. May’s unexpectedly strong results are compounded by the upward revisions in March and April that totaled 93,000 more jobs than reported last month. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job counts and job severances filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

The unemployment rate surged to 3.7%. The Geographic Solutions, Inc. and WSJ forecasts had anticipated an uptick to 3.5%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings and gross job posts on Geographic Solutions state client sites.

Job creation was strongest in Education & Health Services (97,000). Professional & Business Services, Government and Leisure & Hospitality sectors were the other major contributors to employment. Manufacturing was flat, and Information was the only major sector to experience notable job loss.

Leisure & Hospitality and Government are the only major sectors to remain below their pre-pandemic employment levels.

Labor force participation maintained its 62.6% rate from the previous two months. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment increased to 6.7%.

The May employment report revealed that payroll jobs continue to grow at a brisk pace, despite the fears of a slowdown as the Federal Reserve tackles inflation. However, the rising unemployment rate from the Household Survey makes labor market conditions less clear. Looking forward, June’s employment report will probably not tell us much because of the standoff over raising the federal debt ceiling between Congress and the Whitehouse. Although a default appears to have been averted, many companies may have made contingency plans after May 12th (when the June survey period starts) which involve a slowdown in hiring. July should reveal more about the resilience of the labor market heading into the 2nd half of 2023.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: May 2023

Wed, 31 May 2023 17:17:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for May 2023 on Friday, June 2nd. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling further softening in the number of new jobs in May. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in May by 189,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job counts and job severances filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.5% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for May, up 0.1% from its April rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings and gross job posts on Geographic Solutions state client sites.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

Employment Steadily Expands in April

Mon, 08 May 2023 17:22:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for April 2023 on Friday, May 5th. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.

Employment in the U.S. rose by 253,000 jobs. The job results were above the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 212,000. The forecast outperformed the WSJ estimate of 180,000. April’s unexpectedly strong results are the second disruption to the slowing trend we have seen in hiring, since July 2022. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job counts and gross posts filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

The unemployment rate declined to 3.4%, tying a 50-year low. The Geographic Solutions forecast had anticipated an uptick to 3.6%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

Job creation was strongest in Education & Health Services (77,000). Leisure & Hospitality, Professional & Business Services, and the Government sectors were the other major contributors to employment. All industries saw at least some positive job growth.

Leisure & Hospitality and Government are the only major sectors to remain below their pre-pandemic employment levels.

Labor force participation maintained its 62.6% rate from the previous month. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment declined to 6.6%.

The April employment report is a great sign that the labor market is steadily adding jobs in the face of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, even though revisions decreased new job creation by a combined 149,000 in February and March. Additionally, April shows the fallout of the regional bank failures in March which do not seem to have had a dramatic impact. The possibility of avoiding a sustained period of job loss is still a challenge but appears somewhat more feasible after April’s performance.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: April 2023

Tue, 02 May 2023 17:44:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for April 2023 on Friday, May 5th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling further softening in the number of new jobs in April. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in April by 212,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of jobs counts and gross posts filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.6% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for April, up 0.1% from its March rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

The Next Generation of Computer Science: Paul Toomey IT Scholarship Recipients

Mon, 01 May 2023 17:50:00 GMT

Each year, money is generously donated by our GSI employees to fund the Paul Toomey IT Scholarship. The amount is then matched by our company Founder and President Paul Toomey himself. With the money being collected through the end of November 2022, we sent out the call for applications early this year. The application process was open to children of Geographic Solutions employees, as well as all Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas County seniors. This year enough money was raised to award 4 scholarships – more than ever before! Each scholarship recipient received $3,400 which they can use towards credit hours, housing, or curriculum supplies.

Criteria for the scholarship included the demonstration of above-average achievement and motivation towards advancing his/her education in a computer-related field, outstanding service to their school and the community, involvement in extracurricular events, and admirable character. Each applicant was also required to submit an essay detailing what influenced them to pursue a computer-related field of study.

This year we received 22 applications. The GSI scholarship committee reviewed these applications thoroughly and chose the 4 students that best represented the criteria and Geographic Solutions' values.

The four recipients of the 2023 Paul Toomey IT Scholarship are:


Arossa Adhikary – Land O'Lakes, FL Arossa is graduating from Land O’Lakes high school where she was involved in student government, Future Business Leaders of America and Kode with Klossy, a coding organization for young women and non-binary individuals. After college, Arossa plans to work for the government in cybersecurity or computer science combining her desire to serve the public with her love of technology.		Michael See – Palm Harbor, FL Michael spent his high school career involved in many different clubs and organizations including founding East Lake High School’s Artificial Intelligence Club and the Drone club. Michael placed 1st in the People's Choice Awards' Robofest Online World Championship. His entry was an AI-based hand-controlled landing system for a medical delivery drone that navigates natural disasters. He plans to attend the University of Georgia’s Computer Systems Engineering program.


Evan Vargas – Tampa, FL Evan was the president of the STEM club at Tampa Catholic High School and also played on the Varisty Hockey team. Additionally, he spent many hours volunteering for various organizations throughout high school and was inducted into 8 different honor societies. Evan plans to attend the University of South Florida and pursue his dream of being a robotics engineer. Evan's dad Danny Vargas Jr. works here at Geographic Solutions as a Team Lead for the WF Interfaces Team.		Allen Ho – Land O’Lakes, FL Allen has an impressive background, interning for the United States Campaign for Burma and also started his own successful business, RePho, repairing smartphones, tablets and laptops. Allen plans to attend Massachusetts Institute of Technology with hopes of starting his own sustainable consumer electronics engineering company in the future.

Congratulations to each of the recipients! And thank you to each and every employee that donated to help make their dreams a reality!

WATCH: Rebuilding After Reentry: Financial Literacy Provides a Second Chance at Employment Readiness

Wed, 19 Apr 2023 20:56:13 GMT

Did you know out of the 600,000 Americans that are released from prison each year, two-thirds are rearrested within three years? Building awareness and preparing the incarcerated population for reentry is monumental in reducing recidivism rates. Spearheaded by Prison Fellowship in 2017, April is deemed Second Chance Month. Its purpose is to raise awareness of barriers to reentry and focuses on making the most of the second chance they have been given in life.

In honor of Second Chance Month, we sat down with Augie Ghilarducci, President, and COO of 2nd Opportunity. Augie knows firsthand what it’s like to be given a second chance - he was incarcerated himself for 13 years. Throughout his sentence, he realized the need for education and resources within the federal prison system and developed various reentry and employment readiness programs to help his fellow inmates. When he was released, Augie transformed this idea into what 2nd Opportunity is today. The organization aims to empower those dealing with incarceration, addiction and, trauma through courses designed to teach them employment readiness, financial literacy, and more as they take advantage of their second chance.

During the interview, Augie reflects on what it was like for him personally to reenter society after his incarceration and the skills, knowledge, and emotions he struggled with - upon release, Augie had never touched a smartphone and didn’t know what LinkedIn was. He discusses how he took this experience and shaped it into a helpful program to help inmates have a better experience when released. He also mentions how most reentry programs or tips are focused solely on finding a job but, the recently released need more help in terms of financial literacy, soft skills, etc. Often times, these skills are needed before being released and certainly before searching for a job.

Watch the full interview with Augie Ghilarducci:

GSI Labor Market Forecast: March 2023

Tue, 04 Apr 2023 12:16:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for March 2023 on Friday, April 7th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling another strong month in the number of new jobs in March. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in March by 317,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job applications, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.7% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for March, up 0.1% from its February rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

Large Employment Gains Continue in February

Fri, 10 Mar 2023 13:46:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for February 2023 on Friday, March 10th. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.

Employment in the U.S. rose by 311,000 jobs. The jobs results were above the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 264,000 but closer than the WSJ forecast of 225,000. Although the gains were smaller than the surprising 504,000 new jobs in January, the performance in February was still strong. It is still a bit early to conclude that employment has reestablished its softening pattern after the growth outburst in January. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

The unemployment rate increased to 3.6%, right in line with the Geographic Solutions forecast. The WSJ estimated that the unemployment rate would remain unchanged at 3.4%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

Job creation was strongest in Leisure & Hospitality (105,000) and Education & Health Services (74,000). Job growth was mixed in other industries but positive on net.

Leisure & Hospitality and Government are the only major sectors to remain below their pre-pandemic employment level.

The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5% from the previous month. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment rose to 6.8%.

The jobs market is in an interesting spot as it relates to inflation. Typically, large job gains are seen as putting upward pressure on inflation. However, more jobs can also increase production and having more goods and services in the market can alleviate inflation from the supply side. Wage data from the report is signaling that inflation caused by increased salary demands by employees is on the wane. Wage increases have slowed for three consecutive months and are at the lowest growth rate in a year. At this point it is still too early to conclude that inflation rates are definitively heading downward, but this report is giving us reasons for optimism.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: February 2023

Mon, 06 Mar 2023 13:37:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for February 2023 on Friday, March 10th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling a softening in the number of new jobs in February after an explosion of job growth in January. We expect the pace of job creation to slow over the next several months. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in February by 264,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.6% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for February, up 0.2% from its January rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

Black History Month: 8 Local & National Black-Owned Businesses to Support

Mon, 20 Feb 2023 15:12:34 GMT

This week in observance of Black History Month we are highlighting a few Black-owned businesses local to the Tampa Bay area and across the country. It is important to not only learn about Black history and culture but also to support these businesses economically as well. This is critical to the Black community’s success in today’s society as well as the United States' economy as a whole. According to the US Census Bureau's 2021 Annual Business Survey, approximately 19.9% of employer businesses in 2020 were minority owned.

Geographic Solutions is headquartered in Pinellas County, Florida, which is part of the Greater Tampa Bay Area. We have included a few businesses local to our area that we plan on supporting. Keep reading to find out how you can support black-owned businesses at the national level, as well as how you can find Black-owned businesses local to your area.

Local

Chief’s Creole Café (Visit Website)

Elihu and Carolyn Brayboy serve up traditional Creole meals such as gumbo, red beans and rice, and jambalaya to St. Petersburg’s hungry patrons. The restaurant was inspired by Elihu’s mother, Mary Brayboy Jones cooking and her “positive outlook on life, tenacity and perseverance.”

Green Bench Brewing Company (Visit Website)

Owners Steven Duffy, Nathan Stonecipher, and Khris Johnson are passionate about their town and community of St. Petersburg. Green Bench was started as a hobby and evolved into the city’s first microbrewery. The brewery’s namesake is based on the sitting areas that dotted the area for decades. Not only were they symbols of hospitality – they were symbolic of segregation.

Hogg Batch Coffee (Visit Website)

This local coffee shop in St. Pete is serving up a coffee with a unique twist. Owners, twin brothers Duane and David Hogg, combine the rich flavor of coffee beans and the aroma of fine spirits by brewing the coffee in recently emptied barrels. Grab a cup at their location in the Grand Central District.

Bay Riders Water Sports (Visit Website)

Enjoy a fun day in the sun with a jet ski or kayak rental from Bay Rider Water Sports in Tampa. They offer a variety of hourly or full day packages for you to explore the waters of Tampa Bay with your whole family.

National

Kiddie Kredit (Visit Website)

Invented by Black entrepreneur, Evan Leaphart, Kiddie Kredit is a mobile app to use with your children to teach them early on about the importance of managing their credit. It uses a relatable chore system to mimic the real-world examples of the credit system so they can already be a step ahead of being financially literate when they get older.

Jungalow (Visit Website)

Founded by Justine Blakeney in 2009, Jungalow is a lifestyle brand selling home décor items such as wallpaper, art prints and linens. Their aesthetic is described as bohemian modern, and they even have a hugely successful collection at Target nationwide.

Expand Your Search

Etsy (Visit Website)

The online marketplace – Etsy, is a great way to find smaller businesses owned by Black individuals. Here you will find small businesses selling items of every kind from candles to artwork to furniture – you name it, it’s on there. Instead of buying from Amazon for your next gift, find a local Black-owned shop to support.

Blapp (Visit Website)

There are many ways to find Black-owned businesses in your area that you may not be aware of. Blapp is an app that can be downloaded for iOS or Android to help you with your search. Simply create an account and enter your location and it will show you all of the nearby Black-owned businesses near you.

Making small changes in our life such as checking out a new restaurant or supporting a small Black-owned business really make a difference in these individuals lives and in the fight for equality.

10 Ways to Participate in Black History Month Through Media

Mon, 13 Feb 2023 13:49:00 GMT

One way to show support to the Black community during black history month is to further your learning and visibility of their unique history and culture. Featured below are a variety of media to consume in order to learn about the trials black people have overcome in the past and the current hardships they still may face in today’s society. By immersing ourselves in their world for a short amount of time whether it be by reading a book, watching a movie, or listening to a podcast, you come away with a sense of understanding and appreciation for their culture and experiences.

Watch

Just Mercy (2019)

Rated: PG-13

Just Mercy is based on the true story of Bryan Stevenson. Bryan is a high-profile defense lawyer who takes on the case of a wrongly accused, death row inmate, Walter McMillian. The movie is based on the memoir written by Bryan Stevenson, himself.

Watch on HBO Max

Hidden Figures (2016)

Rated: PG

This biographical drama chronicles the careers of three African American women working at NASA, including Kathrine Johnson, who was featured in our previous blog post. They fought discrimination and hardships to become instrumental in one of the greatest NASA operations in history – launching John Glenn into orbit.

Watch on Disney+

Descendent (2022)

Rated: PG

This 2022 documentary features the story of The Clotilda, the last known slavery ship to arrive in the United States in 1860. It chronicles the descendants of the ships passenger’s fight to reveal and honor their family’s legacy.

Watch on Netflix

13th (2016)

Rated: TV-MA

Director Ava DuVernay dives into racial inequality in the United States by taking and in-depth look at the prison system and what led to the mass incarceration of African Americans.

Watch on Netflix

When They See Us (2019) Rated: TV-MA In this limited series based on a true story, five Harlem teens are falsely accused of attacking a white woman in Central Park after being in the wrong place at the wrong time. The accusation permanently alters the rest of their lives. Watch on Netflix		Self Made (2020) Rated: TV-MA Academy Award winning actress, Octavia Spencer, portrays Madam C.J. Walker, an African American washerwoman as she fights her way out of poverty and becomes the first female self-made millionaire by building a beauty empire. Watch on Netflix

Read

The Three Mothers By: Anna Malaika Tubbs You know the names Malcolm X, Martin Luther King Jr. and James Baldwin, but this story is about the women who raised these influential men. Debut author Anna Malaika Tubbs celebrates black motherhood by honoring their indirect contributions to American History. Buy on Amazon		The Hate U Give By: Angie Thomas This fictional novel follows Starr, a sixteen-year-old that witnesses the shooting of her best friend by white police officers. She struggles with how to cope with the events which have become a media sensation. The novel was also adapted into a movie by the same name in 2018. Buy on Amazon

Listen

Code Switch This long running, popular podcast by NPR features weekly stories and topics about race and identity and the impacts they have on every aspect of our society. It offers an educated and in-depth conversation of current events and ideologies. Listen on Spotify		Black Girl Songbook This podcast celebrates the lives and careers of Black female musical artists. With guests such as Jenifer Hudson and Brandy, host Danyel Smith dives into their stories and finds out what made them and their music so legendary. Listen on Spotify

The Labor Market Erupts to Start off 2023

Fri, 03 Feb 2023 13:18:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for January on Friday, February 3rd. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.

Employment in the U.S. rose by 517,000 jobs, the largest gain since July last year. The jobs results were well past expectations in the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 239,000. However, the forecast still outperformed the WSJ Economist Survey estimate of 187,000. Job growth has been slightly softening since August 2022, and despite the strong growth in employment in January, we expect this softening trend to reassert itself for the next few months. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

The unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, matching the Geographic Solutions forecast. The WSJ Economist Survey projected a higher unemployment rate of 3.6%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

Job creation was strongest in Leisure & Hospitality (128,000) and Education & Health Services (105,000). Professional & Business Services (82,000), Government (74,000) and Trade, Transportation, & Utilities (63,000) also contributed substantially to January job gains. Other sectors were flat to slightly positive.

Leisure & Hospitality and Government are the only major sectors to remain below their pre-pandemic employment level.

The labor force participation rate increased to 62.4% from the previous month. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment ticked up to 6.6%.

The surprisingly high job numbers for January combined with a further easing in wage growth provide reasons for optimism on taming inflation:

1) More employment translates to more production which can alleviate inflation from the supply side.

2) Easing wage growth can take pressure off producers to raise prices.

Employment will probably return to the 200,000 to 300,000 pace we have seen for the last few months before January. The Federal Reserve this week revealed that it was adopting a slower rate hike approach of 0.25% per month to see how its cumulative rate hikes for the last year will play out in the labor market and broader economy. The hope is that this breathing room will reveal that the Fed’s previous actions to reduce the inflation rate have taken hold and employers will be able to operate with more certainty on prices and interest rates.