Insights and Perspectives

GSI Labor Market Forecast: February 2024

Tue, 05 Mar 2024 14:22:00 GMT

Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast and unemployment rate forecast from internal data on the number of job openings/searchers/applications and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions' state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts for the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate. These are the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from The Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly surveys that measure labor market trends, The Current Employment Statistics (CES; also known as "the payroll" or "the establishment" survey) and The Current Population Survey (CPS; also known as "the household survey").

GEOGRAPHIC SOLUTIONS PREDICTS:

Jobs are predicted to increase in February by 258,000, in keeping with the strengthening trend seen since October last year.

The Chart shows shaded ranges that represent 80% and 90% probabilities of the actual employment result.
Geographic Solutions' employment forecast is represented by the horizontal blue line to the right.

In Comparison:

Job Creation in the 1st quarters since 2021 has outperformed other quarters. January’s strong result of 353,000 indicate that is continuing in 2024.

GEOGRAPHIC SOLUTIONS PREDICTS:
The unemployment rate will increase to 3.8% for February, which is slightly higher than the 3.7% we saw in January.

This chart shows shaded ranges that represent 80% and 90% probabilities of the actual unemployment rate result.
Geographic Solutions' unemployment rate forecast is represented by the horizontal blue line to the right.

On Friday, March 8th, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release their two monthly surveys,
The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey and The Current Population Survey (CPS).

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: January 2024

Wed, 31 Jan 2024 20:20:00 GMT

Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced the following forecasts for the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate. These are the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from The Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly surveys that measure labor market trends, The Current Employment Statistics (CES; also known as "the payroll" or "the establishment" survey) and The Current Population Survey (CPS; also known as "the household survey").

GEOGRAPHIC SOLUTIONS PREDICTS: Jobs will increase in January by 255,000 in keeping with the strengthening trend seen since October last year.

In Comparison:
Job Creation averaged 225,000 per month in 2023. Strong consumer activity is expected to continue in the early part of this year and contributed to the higher estimate for January employment.

The Chart shows shaded ranges that represent 80% and 90% probabilities of the actual employment result.
Geographic Solutions' employment forecast is represented by the horizontal blue line to the right.

GEOGRAPHIC SOLUTIONS PREDICTS:
The unemployment rate will level out at 3.8% for January, just above its December rate of 3.7%.

To Be Noted:
Last month the labor force participation rate had its largest one-month drop in almost 3 years, preventing a rise in the unemployment rate. That is unlikely to be repeated in January.

On Friday, February 2nd, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release their two monthly surveys,
The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey and The Current Population Survey (CPS).

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: December 2023

Wed, 03 Jan 2024 15:13:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for December 2023 on Friday, January 5th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in December by 231,000, a slight pick-up even as Geographic Solutions sees slowing job growth over the next six months. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings and job applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites.

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.8% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for December, a slight increase from its November rate of 3.7%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job applications, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: November 2023

Wed, 06 Dec 2023 14:54:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for November 2023 on Friday, December 8th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in November by 122,000 as Geographic solutions sees slowing job growth over the next six months. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job applications, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 4.0% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for November, a slight increase from its October rate of 3.9%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: October 2023

Mon, 30 Oct 2023 19:16:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for October 2023 on Friday, November 3rd. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in October by 226,000 as Geographic Solutions sees slowing job growth over the next six months. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions' state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.8% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for October, maintaining its September rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions' state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: September 2023

Tue, 03 Oct 2023 15:04:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for September 2023 on Friday, October 6th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in September by 153,000 as Geographic solutions sees slowing job growth over the next six months that might even turn into job loss for some months. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job applications and job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.8% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for September, maintaining its August rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, job searchers, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast for August 2023

Mon, 28 Aug 2023 15:25:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for August 2023 on Friday, September 1st. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in August by 180,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job applications and job severances filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.5% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for August, maintaining its July rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job applicatiobs, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: July 2023

Wed, 02 Aug 2023 15:40:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for July 2023 on Friday, August 4th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in July by 244,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.5% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for July, down 0.1% from its June rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Report: June 2023

Thu, 06 Jul 2023 16:56:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for June 2023 on Friday, July 7th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in June by 248,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.8% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for June, up 0.1% from its May rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: May 2023

Wed, 31 May 2023 17:17:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for May 2023 on Friday, June 2nd. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling further softening in the number of new jobs in May. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in May by 189,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job counts and job severances filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.5% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for May, up 0.1% from its April rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings and gross job posts on Geographic Solutions state client sites.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: April 2023

Tue, 02 May 2023 17:44:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for April 2023 on Friday, May 5th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling further softening in the number of new jobs in April. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in April by 212,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of jobs counts and gross posts filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.6% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for April, up 0.1% from its March rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: March 2023

Tue, 04 Apr 2023 12:16:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for March 2023 on Friday, April 7th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling another strong month in the number of new jobs in March. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in March by 317,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job applications, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.7% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for March, up 0.1% from its February rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: February 2023

Mon, 06 Mar 2023 13:37:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for February 2023 on Friday, March 10th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling a softening in the number of new jobs in February after an explosion of job growth in January. We expect the pace of job creation to slow over the next several months. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in February by 264,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.6% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for February, up 0.2% from its January rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: January 2023

Thu, 02 Feb 2023 14:24:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for January 2023 on Friday, February 3rd. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling a slight uptick in the number of new jobs, even though job additions are expected to slow over the next several months. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in January by 239,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.4% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for January, down 0.1% from its December rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: November 2022

Wed, 30 Nov 2022 18:47:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for November 2022 on Friday, December 2nd. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling a slowdown in job gains for November. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in November by 152,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.8% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for November, an uptick from its October rate of 3.7%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Forecast: October 2022

Thu, 03 Nov 2022 13:05:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for October 2022 on Friday, October 5th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

Geographic Solutions’ data is pointing to another month of solid job gains for October. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in October by 205,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job applications, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL). Additionally, an indicator combining the interest rate on two-year treasury bills and the consumer price index were inserted to account for inflationary effects on the labor market.

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.5% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for October, unmoved from its rate in September. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

GSI Labor Market Report: September 2022

Thu, 06 Oct 2022 13:11:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for September 2022 on Friday, October 7th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

Geographic Solutions’ data is pointing to another month of solid job gains for September. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in September by 335,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job applications, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.8% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for September, an uptick from its rate in August. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

Geographic Solutions Forecasts for 05/22 Labor Market Report

Wed, 01 Jun 2022 13:28:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for May 2022 on Friday, June 3^rd. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

The labor market has been running hot for several months, but it is uncertain when increasing wage gains are going to have a dampening effect on employment. Geographic Solutions’ data is pointing to a slowdown in job growth for May. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in May by 205,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job applications, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.6% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for May, holding steady from its rate in April. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job applications, job severances, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

Geographic Solutions Forecasts for 04/22 Labor Market Report

Mon, 02 May 2022 12:41:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for April 2022 on Friday, May 6^th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

The labor market has been running hot for several months, but it is uncertain when increasing wage gains are going to have a dampening effect on employment. Geographic Solutions’ data is pointing to another strong month of job growth in April. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in April by 580,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job applications, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.5% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for April, a decline from the March rate of 3.6%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job applications, job severances, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

Geographic Solutions Forecasts for 03/22 Labor Market Report

Fri, 01 Apr 2022 12:47:00 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for March 2022 on Friday, April 1^st. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

Employment growth has averaged 614,000 jobs over the previous five months. While this is an encouraging pace of recovery in the labor market, March numbers are unlikely to be as upbeat. It will be the first complete month since the Russian invasion of Ukraine which has roiled energy and agricultural markets on top of already high inflation rates and a tight labor market in the United States. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in March by 382,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job applications, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.8% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for March, holding the same rate from February. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job applications, job severances, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.