Read the latest from Geographic Solutions.
This Veterans Day, we’re excited to share a spotlight profile and interview on CareerSource Palm Beach County’s Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Steven Gustafson. A former U.S. Marine and an ally for veterans in his community, he recently spoke at our 2023 Workforce Technology Conference about using Employ Florida to increase veteran engagement.
When Gustafson enlisted in the armed forces, he was only 17. He was driven by the opportunity to lift financial burden from his parents. And while he may not have known it at the time, his first job as a land surveyor indirectly prepared him for his service.
“It was incredibly challenging given that you often had to cut line in Florida Everglades swamps to clear a path to determine elevation at different points along the site,” said Gustafson.
When Gustafson transitioned back to civilian employment, he struggled with the guilt of no longer fighting alongside the ones that he had grown so close to during his service. But he turned his struggles into successes by finding a job with his local workforce board as a Local Veteran Employment Representative (LVER). And he now leads a team that has helped at least 20 homeless veterans find livable wages.
His drive to achieve guided him to climb the ranks from Program Manager to Workforce Administrator, eventually moving with his family to Tallahassee.
“I had a commander who told me to always look for opportunities to climb higher in the ranks, not for anything other than to expand the scope of my impact,” said Gustafson.
For Veterans Day, Gustafson’s wants people to honor vets by serving the community.
“The individuals I served alongside were some of the most selfless individuals I have had the honor of knowing,” said Gustafson. “I think that honoring that spirit of selflessness is a great way to honor our veterans, not only on November 11th, but year-round."
According to the monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) from The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), employment in the U.S. in October 2023 slowed to 150,000 additional jobs, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%.
THE LAYOUT
THE SIGNIFICANCE
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for October 2023 on Friday, November 3rd. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in October by 226,000 as Geographic Solutions sees slowing job growth over the next six months. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions' state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.8% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for October, maintaining its September rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions' state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for September 2023 on Friday, October 6th. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose steeply by 336,000 jobs. The job results were more than double the expectations of Geographic Solutions, Inc. (153,000) and the Wall Street Journal Economist Survey (170,000). Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job applications and job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate stayed at 3.8% in September, matching the Geographic Solutions forecast. The WSJ forecast projected the unemployment rate would tick down to 3.7%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, job searchers, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites.
Job creation was strongest in the Leisure & Hospitality (96,000), Government (73,000), and Education & Health Services (70,000) sectors. Other sectors were modestly positive, and none had major job losses.
Leisure & Hospitality and Government are the only major sectors to remain below their pre-pandemic employment levels. However, Government appears ready to surpass that level within the next two months.
The labor force participation rate stayed at its post pandemic high of 62.8% in September. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment fell to 7.0%.
Employment was quite a bit stronger over the last three months than originally estimated. Revisions in July and August added 119,000 more jobs than reported last month. Jobs, especially in Leisure & Hospitality have been boosted by persistently strong consumer spending. Also, the month of September has repeatedly seen unexpected job growth in state employment education since the pandemic began, indicating new seasonal patterns that are not yet captured by the BLS’s seasonal adjustments.
Nevertheless, there are some signs that the labor market may not be as tight as it seems at first glance. Wage gains are softening somewhat while the number of part-time jobs has been growing, albeit unevenly, since mid-2022. This may be a sign that employers are nervous about an economic downturn but want to avoid employee shortages once the economy strengthens.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for September 2023 on Friday, October 6th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in September by 153,000 as Geographic solutions sees slowing job growth over the next six months that might even turn into job loss for some months. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job applications and job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.8% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for September, maintaining its August rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, job searchers, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites.
As we wrap up Workforce Development Month, not only is it a moment to reflect on the past, it’s a perfect time to watch for future trends.
For industry professionals, the elephant in the room is artificial intelligence (AI). Defined in a 2004 paper by Stanford University’s John McCarthy as the use of intelligent machines and computers, AI is everywhere you look. And unlike recent trends such as non-fungible tokens, the Internet of Things, and the metaverse, AI has the longevity to impact the US workforce, the folks that help others along their career journey, and all connected industries.
But, taking it one step further, AI has the potential to increase the need for workforce development.
Read on to find out more.
You Are Here
Chances are you’re already using AI or an application that relies on machine learning. Visit your favorite website and interact with their chat agent. That may be a virtual assistant. Check your spelling and style with a tool like Grammarly. Yup, that’s AI. Searching for something new to watch on Netflix? A form of AI just helped you binge the latest hit show.
The professionals of the future who harness AI as an assistant while learning the soft skills that robots can’t, will see their careers accelerate. But let’s take a step back. Why Workforce Development Month?
Across the United States, there are more than 500 workforce development boards and 2,300 American Job Centers. Thousands of career counselors, employment specialists, youth advocates, and program managers work every day to ensure that the 167 million-strong U.S. workforce is skilled, willed, and ready to work.
And that’s why in 2005, the National Association of Workforce Development Professionals (NAWDP) created Workforce Development Month to help raise awareness for the industry’s economic impact.
A Brief History of Workforce Development
Let’s Talk Stats
As of August 2023, Employment Services accounted for more jobs in Administrative and Support Services than any other category at 3.6 million. It also made up 2.4% of national employment.
According to statistics from the NAWB, an advocate for workforce boards, 12 million people touch the workforce development system each year. During COVID, over 9 million people used career services.
The Brookings Institute estimates that the collective knowledge and capabilities of the U.S. workforce is worth an estimated $240 trillion, placing its value above 10 times that of all urban zones throughout the country. For the record, some of the largest zones of this nature are metropolitan statistical areas such as:
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the National Skills Coalition found that closing the digital skills divide could raise pay by an average of 45%. At the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting of the New Champions, leaders from across the world met to discuss new innovations and their skills requirements. They found that at the current pace of technological change, 44% of workers skills will be disrupted in the next five years.
“I think that digital literacy today is what literacy used to be in the past,” said international workforce development consultant, Miguel Peromingo. “You cannot take part in the world of work properly if you are not able to express yourself in a digital way or deliver your skills digitally.”
AI in Workforce Development
The future of workforce development could hinge on the introduction of artificial intelligence to platforms that support upskilling, training, and hiring.
In a July 2023, a report from McKinsey Global Institute showed that by 2030, 30% of hours worked across the US economy could be automated. This trend could be accelerated by generative AI.
The most noteworthy insight from McKinsey’s report is that as the use of generative AI increases, the US will need workforce development on a far larger scale. According to the report “employers will need to hire for skills and competencies rather than credentials.”
Could AI lend a hand to self-guided skills building sessions? Bruce Sylva, Senior Director of Sales at StandOut is confident that it will.
“What we’re doing with AI is using different tools to build confidence in interview practice,” said Sylva.
StandOut is amongst a group of companies that offer these training and practice options.
Good Times for Soft Skills
Metrix Learning, a company that provides skills building and training solutions, echoed these sentiments in a recent edition of Partnership Marketplace. Those in hiring positions have called for more candidates with the soft skills needed to complement AI and automation.
“Employers are always asking for somebody that has core communications, teamwork, emotional intelligence, and critical thinking skills,” said Christine Peng, Metrix Learning’s Workforce Development Product Manager.
Future Looking Forward
AI is only going to enhance the ways in which we can train and upskill workers. Skills gain and skills-based training stand to benefit greatly from the use of artificial intelligence in the same way that writers benefit from tools like Grammarly for editing and Hemingway App style. And, professionals who help folks in their career journey are perhaps already using tool or feature that relies on an application of AI.
September is the ideal time to celebrate and recognize the contributions of workforce development professionals but we should recognize these folks year round. When Senator Justin Morrill of Vermont submitted his initial legislation, he couldn’t have foreseen that he would be creating a new type of people power that would be observed yearly. And, he couldn’t have imagined that artificial intelligence generated by computers would be part of the conversation.
But as we look to 2024, we are here – and we’re ready.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for August 2023 on Friday, September 1st. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose by 187,000 jobs. The job results were slightly above the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 180,000 while the WSJ estimate was further away at 170,000. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job applications and job severances filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in August. The Geographic Solutions forecast and the WSJ forecast projected the unemployment rate would maintain the 3.5% result from July. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor.
Job creation was strongest in the Education & Health Services (102,000) and Leisure & Hospitality (40,000) sector. Other sectors were modestly positive, but the Trade, Transportation, & Utilities and Information sectors lost jobs.
Leisure & Hospitality and Government are the only major sectors to remain below their pre-pandemic employment levels.
The labor force participation rate grew in August for the first time since March 2023, reaching 62.8%. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment increased to 7.1%.
Employment noticeably softened during the summer, averaging only 150,000 new jobs per month from June through August after averaging 238,000 from March to May of this year. The 3.8% unemployment rate is also signaling some weakening in labor demand. Education & Health Services has led the way in job increases for the third straight month and made up the majority of new jobs in July and August. The Fed’s interest rate policy is having a moderating effect on the labor market. The near term prognosis for the labor market is likely sub-200,000 monthly job growth as the Fed’s interest rate hikes continue to work their way through the economy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for August 2023 on Friday, September 1st. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in August by 180,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job applications and job severances filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.5% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for August, maintaining its July rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job applicatiobs, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for July 2023 on Friday, August 4th. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose by 187,000 jobs. The job results were below the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 244,000 while the WSJ estimate was closer at 200,000. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. The Geographic Solutions forecast matched the 3.5% result and outperformed the WSJ estimate of 3.6%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor.
Job creation was strongest in the Education & Health Services (100,000) sector. Other sectors were modestly positive, but the Manufacturing, Information, and Professional & Business Services industries lost jobs.
Labor force participation maintained its 62.6% rate for the fifth consecutive month. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment declined to 6.7%.
Looking at employment over the last year, it appears that the Fed’s interest rate policy has had a moderate effect on the labor market. With the exceptions of January and May 2023, job growth has been on a slight glide path to end up under 200,000 in June and July. Education & Health Services has led the way in job increases for the second straight month and made up most of new jobs in July. This might be due to seasonal factors that have changed in the post-pandemic era and will require consideration for any yo-yo effects that might occur in the coming months. The near-term prognosis for the labor market is likely sub-200,000 monthly job growth as the Fed’s interest rate hike continued to work their way through the economy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for July 2023 on Friday, August 4th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in July by 244,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.5% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for July, down 0.1% from its June rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor.