Insights and Perspective

 

Insights and Perspective

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Read the latest from Geographic Solutions.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for February 2022 on Friday, March 4th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.

January employment came in strong partly due to population revisions in the BLS calculations. As the effects of the Omicron variant ebbed in February, Geographic Solutions indicators are pointing towards the continuation of solid employment growth. However, it is important to keep in mind that employment has been extraordinarily volatile over the last 12 months and has responded differently to the high number of job openings both from Geographic Solutions and the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in February by 507,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job applications, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.9% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for February, a decline from the 4.0% rate in January. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job applications, job severances, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.



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