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The June labor market report will come as a relief to many after earlier lackluster growth, yet the U.S. employment level remains below its February 2020 total. Job creation was most pronounced in Leisure & Hospitality even as restaurants and hotels struggle to fill job openings.
As many state governments moved to restrict eligibility for unemployment benefits in June, this month's report should provide a first look at the degree to which more generous benefits held back employment.
While strong job growth in March indicated the job market was about to take off, the last two months have had disappointing outcomes.
Job growth in April signaled the U.S. went through a hiccup in the recovery which should eventually return to the job increases of summer 2020.
Leisure and Hospitality, the most battered industry from Covid-19, created 331,000 jobs last month.
Our April Employment Forecast projects accelerated job growth in the coming months as vaccines are distributed to a greater percentage of the population.
March labor market report shows that we have entered a new phase in the recovery that returns to the job increases of summer 2020.
In advance of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly jobs report, we're forecasting the monthly change in employment and unemployment rate.
Job market gains came from a strong performance in the Leisure & Hospitality sector in February that totaled 355,000 new jobs, an encouraging sign for the most beleaguered sector since the onset of the pandemic.
GSI derives its employment forecast from internal data on job openings, job severances, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits filed on GSI state client sites
The results mark 11 months since the Covid-19 economic lockdown and signals that the labor market recovery is continuing to move sideways after healthy growth from May through October 2020. Strong growth should reassert itself as more Covid-19 vaccinations are administered later in 2021.
Geographic Solutions, Inc. (GSI), has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
Economist Phillip Sprehe shares his commentary on December's jobs report, which caps a year that experienced the worst job loss on record. The Covid-19 vaccine offers hope for an economic jump start in 2021.