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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for May 2023 on Friday, June 2nd. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose by 339,000 jobs. The job results were significantly above the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 189,000 which was virtually tied with the WSJ estimate of 190,000. May’s unexpectedly strong results are compounded by the upward revisions in March and April that totaled 93,000 more jobs than reported last month. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job counts and job severances filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate surged to 3.7%. The Geographic Solutions, Inc. and WSJ forecasts had anticipated an uptick to 3.5%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings and gross job posts on Geographic Solutions state client sites.
Job creation was strongest in Education & Health Services (97,000). Professional & Business Services, Government and Leisure & Hospitality sectors were the other major contributors to employment. Manufacturing was flat, and Information was the only major sector to experience notable job loss.
Leisure & Hospitality and Government are the only major sectors to remain below their pre-pandemic employment levels.
Labor force participation maintained its 62.6% rate from the previous two months. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment increased to 6.7%.
The May employment report revealed that payroll jobs continue to grow at a brisk pace, despite the fears of a slowdown as the Federal Reserve tackles inflation. However, the rising unemployment rate from the Household Survey makes labor market conditions less clear. Looking forward, June’s employment report will probably not tell us much because of the standoff over raising the federal debt ceiling between Congress and the Whitehouse. Although a default appears to have been averted, many companies may have made contingency plans after May 12th (when the June survey period starts) which involve a slowdown in hiring. July should reveal more about the resilience of the labor market heading into the 2nd half of 2023.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for May 2023 on Friday, June 2nd. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling further softening in the number of new jobs in May. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in May by 189,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job counts and job severances filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.5% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for May, up 0.1% from its April rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings and gross job posts on Geographic Solutions state client sites.
After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for April 2023 on Friday, May 5th. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose by 253,000 jobs. The job results were above the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 212,000. The forecast outperformed the WSJ estimate of 180,000. April’s unexpectedly strong results are the second disruption to the slowing trend we have seen in hiring, since July 2022. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job counts and gross posts filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate declined to 3.4%, tying a 50-year low. The Geographic Solutions forecast had anticipated an uptick to 3.6%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
Job creation was strongest in Education & Health Services (77,000). Leisure & Hospitality, Professional & Business Services, and the Government sectors were the other major contributors to employment. All industries saw at least some positive job growth.
Labor force participation maintained its 62.6% rate from the previous month. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment declined to 6.6%.
The April employment report is a great sign that the labor market is steadily adding jobs in the face of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, even though revisions decreased new job creation by a combined 149,000 in February and March. Additionally, April shows the fallout of the regional bank failures in March which do not seem to have had a dramatic impact. The possibility of avoiding a sustained period of job loss is still a challenge but appears somewhat more feasible after April’s performance.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for April 2023 on Friday, May 5th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling further softening in the number of new jobs in April. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in April by 212,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job counts and gross posts filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.6% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for April, up 0.1% from its March rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
Each year, money is generously donated by our GSI employees to fund the Paul Toomey IT Scholarship. The amount is then matched by our company Founder and President Paul Toomey himself. With the money being collected through the end of November 2022, we sent out the call for applications early this year. The application process was open to children of Geographic Solutions employees, as well as all Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas County seniors. This year enough money was raised to award 4 scholarships – more than ever before! Each scholarship recipient received $3,400 which they can use towards credit hours, housing, or curriculum supplies.
Criteria for the scholarship included the demonstration of above-average achievement and motivation towards advancing his/her education in a computer-related field, outstanding service to their school and the community, involvement in extracurricular events, and admirable character. Each applicant was also required to submit an essay detailing what influenced them to pursue a computer-related field of study.
This year we received 22 applications. The GSI scholarship committee reviewed these applications thoroughly and chose the 4 students that best represented the criteria and Geographic Solutions' values.
Congratulations to each of the recipients! And thank you to each and every employee that donated to help make their dreams a reality!
Did you know out of the 600,000 Americans that are released from prison each year, two-thirds are rearrested within three years? Building awareness and preparing the incarcerated population for reentry is monumental in reducing recidivism rates. Spearheaded by Prison Fellowship in 2017, April is deemed Second Chance Month. Its purpose is to raise awareness of barriers to reentry and focuses on making the most of the second chance they have been given in life.
In honor of Second Chance Month, we sat down with Augie Ghilarducci, President, and COO of 2nd Opportunity. Augie knows firsthand what it’s like to be given a second chance - he was incarcerated himself for 13 years. Throughout his sentence, he realized the need for education and resources within the federal prison system and developed various reentry and employment readiness programs to help his fellow inmates. When he was released, Augie transformed this idea into what 2nd Opportunity is today. The organization aims to empower those dealing with incarceration, addiction and, trauma through courses designed to teach them employment readiness, financial literacy, and more as they take advantage of their second chance.
During the interview, Augie reflects on what it was like for him personally to reenter society after his incarceration and the skills, knowledge, and emotions he struggled with - upon release, Augie had never touched a smartphone and didn’t know what LinkedIn was. He discusses how he took this experience and shaped it into a helpful program to help inmates have a better experience when released. He also mentions how most reentry programs or tips are focused solely on finding a job but, the recently released need more help in terms of financial literacy, soft skills, etc. Often times, these skills are needed before being released and certainly before searching for a job.
Watch the full interview with Augie Ghilarducci:
In many ways, an apprenticeship provides a faster track to employment than four-year degrees -- especially in industries ripe for expansion.
Apprenticeships have long been responsible for developing talented individuals into trusted teammates and sought-after leaders at companies large and small. The earn-while-you-learn model simultaneously establishes living wages and upskilling, which is vital to long-term career success.
In 2019, when the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL) announced the availability of Apprenticeship State Expansion Grants, Geographic Solutions began a partnership with St. Petersburg College (SPC). The community college, based in Pinellas County, Florida, assisted in crafting a Registered Apprenticeship Program that would help to grow and support new talent.
Six apprentices have completed the program since its start, while five have transitioned into full-time roles at the company. These individuals have worked their way up into key roles, supporting departments such as quality assurance, workforce and unemployment insurance development, and business analysis.
Mapping Out the Journey
The Geographic Solutions (GSI) Apprenticeship Program takes one year to complete. At the end of their tenure, if they are a good fit, and if there is a position available, they can be hired for a full-time position.
The program starts with an experienced mentor walking the apprentice through the entire process. The components of the apprenticeship include department involvement, structured on-the-job training, rewards for skills gain, and credentials. During the supervisory part of the program, apprentices learn through a step-by-step process that follows a job competency chart.
The earn-while-you-learn model encompasses technical and educational training.
For the in-class segment, SPC provides entry points with four courses throughout the year, enabling them to ‘learn while they earn.’ Each quarter, apprentices earn a certificate for course completion. Upon completion of all courses, program participants celebrate with a live graduation in front of friends and family.
From College to Career Path
Lee Noel, a Programmer/Analyst on the Unemployment Insurance Adjudication Team, started the GSI Apprenticeship Program while studying data science analytics at the University of South Florida. Through this program, he saw the opportunity to not only learn programming and planning skills but to understand how to thrive in a professional workplace setting.
“This is my first-ever technology company where I'm working in software, in a professional environment, on a daily basis,” said Noel. “I’ve learned about deployment into production and also skills to make sure my communication is clear to the end user.”
Bisi Adeshina, a Programmer/Analyst on the Reporting and Print Forms Services Team, was immediately able to apply what she learned in class to her work. After going back to school for web development, a career counselor informed her about the program while she was applying to entry-level tech positions.
“I feel that an apprenticeship is a great option for those looking to join the workforce quickly, simply because you can get hands-on experience,” said Adeshina. “You are getting paid for the time and you're getting the training and it’s [the length of the apprenticeship] less than a four-year degree.”
Careers have many peaks and valleys. Adeshina has been able to learn about how to come back from the valleys by listening to senior developers share stories of success and failure.
“Everybody starts from somewhere, and you can’t do it alone,” said Adeshina.
Soft Skills for Hi-Tech
Kyleigh Ross was one of the first participants in the program. She sought a job in tech after working in hospitality. What drew her in was the chance to dabble in multiple positions and try several things before deciding on a path.
“I think it’s very important for companies to offer apprenticeship programs because it gives people the opportunity to focus only on real-life skills,” said Ross. “It’s beneficial to the company because the incoming apprentice is being built to fit the company’s needs.”
Employed with the company for three and a half years, she’s learned to ask for help during key points in projects and to accept every opportunity to advance or learn a new skill. She advises incoming apprentices to consider all guidance given, be open to constructive criticism, and stay eager to learn and grow.
Jimmy Pham found the program by searching for opportunities on various job boards. With a background in education, the program piqued his interest.
“I liked how we were able to combine what we were learning in the classes toward our work environment,” said Pham. “My recommendation for anyone who’s looking towards apprenticeship to get into information technology -- go for it.”
Continuous Growth in Apprenticeships
According to the most recent data from the USDOL, apprenticeships have experienced a 64% increase since 2012, with close to 15,000 programs created by employers around the country.
Doug Carruthers was an established employee in a career field unrelated to software development. He started over when he came to Geographic Solutions, having only a few generic information technology certifications and little idea what kind of jobs were available beyond working at the help desk or writing code. He was able to work in multiple roles and departments until he found his niche.
“Apprenticeship is one of the best ways to grow a skill,” said Carruthers. “Shadowing different people exposes you to different approaches while reinforcing the core concepts common to the company as a whole.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for March 2023 on Friday, April 7th. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose by 236,000 jobs. The jobs results were below the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 317,000 but in line with the WSJ forecast of 238,000. This is the second consecutive month that job growth has slowed which may signal that employment has returned to the slowing pattern it had established throughout the second half of 2022. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job applications, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate declined slightly to 3.5%, matching the WSJ estimate. The Geographic Solutions forecast had anticipated an uptick to 3.7%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
Job creation was strongest in Leisure & Hospitality (72,000) and Education & Health Services (65,000). Other major contributors to employment were Professional & Business Services and the Government sectors. Construction shed 9,000 jobs. Other industries were flat.
The labor force participation rate increased to 62.6% from the previous month. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment declined to 6.7%.
The March Labor Market Report shows that job growth has slowed. Although fewer, the representation remained a solid expansion, with an increase in the labor force participation rate. Furthermore, year-over-year private sector wage gains increased at the lowest rate since June 2021, an encouraging sign that the inflation rate remains on a downward trajectory. However, the surveys for the report were conducted in early March, and do not reflect the recent turmoil in the banking system. This may have future ramifications for jobs and unemployment based on a mix of reactions from the Federal Reserve, the U.S Treasury Department, and employers.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for March 2023 on Friday, April 7th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling another strong month in the number of new jobs in March. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in March by 317,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job applications, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.7% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for March, up 0.1% from its February rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for February 2023 on Friday, March 10th. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose by 311,000 jobs. The jobs results were above the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 264,000 but closer than the WSJ forecast of 225,000. Although the gains were smaller than the surprising 504,000 new jobs in January, the performance in February was still strong. It is still a bit early to conclude that employment has reestablished its softening pattern after the growth outburst in January. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate increased to 3.6%, right in line with the Geographic Solutions forecast. The WSJ estimated that the unemployment rate would remain unchanged at 3.4%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
Job creation was strongest in Leisure & Hospitality (105,000) and Education & Health Services (74,000). Job growth was mixed in other industries but positive on net.
Leisure & Hospitality and Government are the only major sectors to remain below their pre-pandemic employment level.
The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5% from the previous month. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment rose to 6.8%.
The jobs market is in an interesting spot as it relates to inflation. Typically, large job gains are seen as putting upward pressure on inflation. However, more jobs can also increase production and having more goods and services in the market can alleviate inflation from the supply side. Wage data from the report is signaling that inflation caused by increased salary demands by employees is on the wane. Wage increases have slowed for three consecutive months and are at the lowest growth rate in a year. At this point it is still too early to conclude that inflation rates are definitively heading downward, but this report is giving us reasons for optimism.