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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for August 2023 on Friday, September 1st. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose by 187,000 jobs. The job results were slightly above the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 180,000 while the WSJ estimate was further away at 170,000. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job applications and job severances filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in August. The Geographic Solutions forecast and the WSJ forecast projected the unemployment rate would maintain the 3.5% result from July. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor.
Job creation was strongest in the Education & Health Services (102,000) and Leisure & Hospitality (40,000) sector. Other sectors were modestly positive, but the Trade, Transportation, & Utilities and Information sectors lost jobs.
Leisure & Hospitality and Government are the only major sectors to remain below their pre-pandemic employment levels.
The labor force participation rate grew in August for the first time since March 2023, reaching 62.8%. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment increased to 7.1%.
Employment noticeably softened during the summer, averaging only 150,000 new jobs per month from June through August after averaging 238,000 from March to May of this year. The 3.8% unemployment rate is also signaling some weakening in labor demand. Education & Health Services has led the way in job increases for the third straight month and made up the majority of new jobs in July and August. The Fed’s interest rate policy is having a moderating effect on the labor market. The near term prognosis for the labor market is likely sub-200,000 monthly job growth as the Fed’s interest rate hikes continue to work their way through the economy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for August 2023 on Friday, September 1st. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in August by 180,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job applications and job severances filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.5% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for August, maintaining its July rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job applicatiobs, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor.
After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for July 2023 on Friday, August 4th. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose by 187,000 jobs. The job results were below the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 244,000 while the WSJ estimate was closer at 200,000. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. The Geographic Solutions forecast matched the 3.5% result and outperformed the WSJ estimate of 3.6%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor.
Job creation was strongest in the Education & Health Services (100,000) sector. Other sectors were modestly positive, but the Manufacturing, Information, and Professional & Business Services industries lost jobs.
Labor force participation maintained its 62.6% rate for the fifth consecutive month. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment declined to 6.7%.
Looking at employment over the last year, it appears that the Fed’s interest rate policy has had a moderate effect on the labor market. With the exceptions of January and May 2023, job growth has been on a slight glide path to end up under 200,000 in June and July. Education & Health Services has led the way in job increases for the second straight month and made up most of new jobs in July. This might be due to seasonal factors that have changed in the post-pandemic era and will require consideration for any yo-yo effects that might occur in the coming months. The near-term prognosis for the labor market is likely sub-200,000 monthly job growth as the Fed’s interest rate hike continued to work their way through the economy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for July 2023 on Friday, August 4th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in July by 244,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.5% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for July, down 0.1% from its June rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for June 2023 on Friday, July 7th. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose by 209,000 jobs. The job results were below the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 248,000, but was virtually tied with the Wall Street Journal estimate of 240,000. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. The Geographic Solutions, Inc. had anticipated an uptick to 3.8% while the WSJ estimated it would decline to 3.6%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor.
Job creation was strongest in the Education & Health Services (73,000) and Government (60,000) sectors. Other sectors were flat or down. However, Construction did add 23,000 jobs.
Labor force participation maintained its 62.6% rate from the previous three months. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment increased to 6.9%.
The June employment report revealed that payroll jobs continue to grow at a brisk pace, despite the fears of a slowdown as the Federal Reserve tackles inflation. These results are in line with expectations, and there is not a lot to draw on for what we might see in the months ahead. Job openings still far outnumber the unemployed, so that is somewhat promising for future job growth.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for June 2023 on Friday, July 7th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in June by 248,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.8% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for June, up 0.1% from its May rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for May 2023 on Friday, June 2nd. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose by 339,000 jobs. The job results were significantly above the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 189,000 which was virtually tied with the WSJ estimate of 190,000. May’s unexpectedly strong results are compounded by the upward revisions in March and April that totaled 93,000 more jobs than reported last month. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job counts and job severances filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate surged to 3.7%. The Geographic Solutions, Inc. and WSJ forecasts had anticipated an uptick to 3.5%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings and gross job posts on Geographic Solutions state client sites.
Job creation was strongest in Education & Health Services (97,000). Professional & Business Services, Government and Leisure & Hospitality sectors were the other major contributors to employment. Manufacturing was flat, and Information was the only major sector to experience notable job loss.
Labor force participation maintained its 62.6% rate from the previous two months. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment increased to 6.7%.
The May employment report revealed that payroll jobs continue to grow at a brisk pace, despite the fears of a slowdown as the Federal Reserve tackles inflation. However, the rising unemployment rate from the Household Survey makes labor market conditions less clear. Looking forward, June’s employment report will probably not tell us much because of the standoff over raising the federal debt ceiling between Congress and the Whitehouse. Although a default appears to have been averted, many companies may have made contingency plans after May 12th (when the June survey period starts) which involve a slowdown in hiring. July should reveal more about the resilience of the labor market heading into the 2nd half of 2023.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for May 2023 on Friday, June 2nd. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling further softening in the number of new jobs in May. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in May by 189,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job counts and job severances filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.5% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for May, up 0.1% from its April rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings and gross job posts on Geographic Solutions state client sites.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for April 2023 on Friday, May 5th. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose by 253,000 jobs. The job results were above the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 212,000. The forecast outperformed the WSJ estimate of 180,000. April’s unexpectedly strong results are the second disruption to the slowing trend we have seen in hiring, since July 2022. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job counts and gross posts filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate declined to 3.4%, tying a 50-year low. The Geographic Solutions forecast had anticipated an uptick to 3.6%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
Job creation was strongest in Education & Health Services (77,000). Leisure & Hospitality, Professional & Business Services, and the Government sectors were the other major contributors to employment. All industries saw at least some positive job growth.
Labor force participation maintained its 62.6% rate from the previous month. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment declined to 6.6%.
The April employment report is a great sign that the labor market is steadily adding jobs in the face of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, even though revisions decreased new job creation by a combined 149,000 in February and March. Additionally, April shows the fallout of the regional bank failures in March which do not seem to have had a dramatic impact. The possibility of avoiding a sustained period of job loss is still a challenge but appears somewhat more feasible after April’s performance.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for April 2023 on Friday, May 5th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling further softening in the number of new jobs in April. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in April by 212,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job counts and gross posts filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.6% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for April, up 0.1% from its March rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.