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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for March 2022 on Friday, April 1st. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
Employment growth has averaged 614,000 jobs over the previous five months. While this is an encouraging pace of recovery in the labor market, March numbers are unlikely to be as upbeat. It will be the first complete month since the Russian invasion of Ukraine which has roiled energy and agricultural markets on top of already high inflation rates and a tight labor market in the United States. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in March by 382,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job applications, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.8% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for March, holding the same rate from February. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job applications, job severances, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.