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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for February 2023 on Friday, March 10th. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose by 311,000 jobs. The jobs results were above the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 264,000 but closer than the WSJ forecast of 225,000. Although the gains were smaller than the surprising 504,000 new jobs in January, the performance in February was still strong. It is still a bit early to conclude that employment has reestablished its softening pattern after the growth outburst in January. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate increased to 3.6%, right in line with the Geographic Solutions forecast. The WSJ estimated that the unemployment rate would remain unchanged at 3.4%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
Job creation was strongest in Leisure & Hospitality (105,000) and Education & Health Services (74,000). Job growth was mixed in other industries but positive on net.
Leisure & Hospitality and Government are the only major sectors to remain below their pre-pandemic employment level.
The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5% from the previous month. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment rose to 6.8%.
The jobs market is in an interesting spot as it relates to inflation. Typically, large job gains are seen as putting upward pressure on inflation. However, more jobs can also increase production and having more goods and services in the market can alleviate inflation from the supply side. Wage data from the report is signaling that inflation caused by increased salary demands by employees is on the wane. Wage increases have slowed for three consecutive months and are at the lowest growth rate in a year. At this point it is still too early to conclude that inflation rates are definitively heading downward, but this report is giving us reasons for optimism.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for February 2023 on Friday, March 10th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling a softening in the number of new jobs in February after an explosion of job growth in January. We expect the pace of job creation to slow over the next several months. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in February by 264,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.6% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for February, up 0.2% from its January rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.
This week in observance of Black History Month we are highlighting a few Black-owned businesses local to the Tampa Bay area and across the country. It is important to not only learn about Black history and culture but also to support these businesses economically as well. This is critical to the Black community’s success in today’s society as well as the United States' economy as a whole. According to the US Census Bureau's 2021 Annual Business Survey, approximately 19.9% of employer businesses in 2020 were minority owned.
Geographic Solutions is headquartered in Pinellas County, Florida, which is part of the Greater Tampa Bay Area. We have included a few businesses local to our area that we plan on supporting. Keep reading to find out how you can support black-owned businesses at the national level, as well as how you can find Black-owned businesses local to your area.
Chief’s Creole Café (Visit Website)
Elihu and Carolyn Brayboy serve up traditional Creole meals such as gumbo, red beans and rice, and jambalaya to St. Petersburg’s hungry patrons. The restaurant was inspired by Elihu’s mother, Mary Brayboy Jones cooking and her “positive outlook on life, tenacity and perseverance.”
Green Bench Brewing Company (Visit Website)
Owners Steven Duffy, Nathan Stonecipher, and Khris Johnson are passionate about their town and community of St. Petersburg. Green Bench was started as a hobby and evolved into the city’s first microbrewery. The brewery’s namesake is based on the sitting areas that dotted the area for decades. Not only were they symbols of hospitality – they were symbolic of segregation.
Hogg Batch Coffee (Visit Website)
This local coffee shop in St. Pete is serving up a coffee with a unique twist. Owners, twin brothers Duane and David Hogg, combine the rich flavor of coffee beans and the aroma of fine spirits by brewing the coffee in recently emptied barrels. Grab a cup at their location in the Grand Central District.
Bay Riders Water Sports (Visit Website)
Enjoy a fun day in the sun with a jet ski or kayak rental from Bay Rider Water Sports in Tampa. They offer a variety of hourly or full day packages for you to explore the waters of Tampa Bay with your whole family.
Kiddie Kredit (Visit Website)
Invented by Black entrepreneur, Evan Leaphart, Kiddie Kredit is a mobile app to use with your children to teach them early on about the importance of managing their credit. It uses a relatable chore system to mimic the real-world examples of the credit system so they can already be a step ahead of being financially literate when they get older.
Jungalow (Visit Website)
Founded by Justine Blakeney in 2009, Jungalow is a lifestyle brand selling home décor items such as wallpaper, art prints and linens. Their aesthetic is described as bohemian modern, and they even have a hugely successful collection at Target nationwide.
Etsy (Visit Website)
The online marketplace – Etsy, is a great way to find smaller businesses owned by Black individuals. Here you will find small businesses selling items of every kind from candles to artwork to furniture – you name it, it’s on there. Instead of buying from Amazon for your next gift, find a local Black-owned shop to support.
Blapp (Visit Website)
There are many ways to find Black-owned businesses in your area that you may not be aware of. Blapp is an app that can be downloaded for iOS or Android to help you with your search. Simply create an account and enter your location and it will show you all of the nearby Black-owned businesses near you.
Making small changes in our life such as checking out a new restaurant or supporting a small Black-owned business really make a difference in these individuals lives and in the fight for equality.
One way to show support to the Black community during black history month is to further your learning and visibility of their unique history and culture. Featured below are a variety of media to consume in order to learn about the trials black people have overcome in the past and the current hardships they still may face in today’s society. By immersing ourselves in their world for a short amount of time whether it be by reading a book, watching a movie, or listening to a podcast, you come away with a sense of understanding and appreciation for their culture and experiences.
Just Mercy (2019)
Just Mercy is based on the true story of Bryan Stevenson. Bryan is a high-profile defense lawyer who takes on the case of a wrongly accused, death row inmate, Walter McMillian. The movie is based on the memoir written by Bryan Stevenson, himself.
Hidden Figures (2016)
Descendent (2022)
This 2022 documentary features the story of The Clotilda, the last known slavery ship to arrive in the United States in 1860. It chronicles the descendants of the ships passenger’s fight to reveal and honor their family’s legacy.
13th (2016)
Director Ava DuVernay dives into racial inequality in the United States by taking and in-depth look at the prison system and what led to the mass incarceration of African Americans.
When They See Us (2019)
In this limited series based on a true story, five Harlem teens are falsely accused of attacking a white woman in Central Park after being in the wrong place at the wrong time. The accusation permanently alters the rest of their lives.
Self Made (2020)
Academy Award winning actress, Octavia Spencer, portrays Madam C.J. Walker, an African American washerwoman as she fights her way out of poverty and becomes the first female self-made millionaire by building a beauty empire.
The Three Mothers
You know the names Malcolm X, Martin Luther King Jr. and James Baldwin, but this story is about the women who raised these influential men. Debut author Anna Malaika Tubbs celebrates black motherhood by honoring their indirect contributions to American History.
The Hate U Give
This fictional novel follows Starr, a sixteen-year-old that witnesses the shooting of her best friend by white police officers. She struggles with how to cope with the events which have become a media sensation. The novel was also adapted into a movie by the same name in 2018.
Code Switch
This long running, popular podcast by NPR features weekly stories and topics about race and identity and the impacts they have on every aspect of our society. It offers an educated and in-depth conversation of current events and ideologies.
Black Girl Songbook
This podcast celebrates the lives and careers of Black female musical artists. With guests such as Jenifer Hudson and Brandy, host Danyel Smith dives into their stories and finds out what made them and their music so legendary.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for January on Friday, February 3rd. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose by 517,000 jobs, the largest gain since July last year. The jobs results were well past expectations in the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 239,000. However, the forecast still outperformed the WSJ Economist Survey estimate of 187,000. Job growth has been slightly softening since August 2022, and despite the strong growth in employment in January, we expect this softening trend to reassert itself for the next few months. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, matching the Geographic Solutions forecast. The WSJ Economist Survey projected a higher unemployment rate of 3.6%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
Job creation was strongest in Leisure & Hospitality (128,000) and Education & Health Services (105,000). Professional & Business Services (82,000), Government (74,000) and Trade, Transportation, & Utilities (63,000) also contributed substantially to January job gains. Other sectors were flat to slightly positive.
The labor force participation rate increased to 62.4% from the previous month. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment ticked up to 6.6%.
The surprisingly high job numbers for January combined with a further easing in wage growth provide reasons for optimism on taming inflation:
1) More employment translates to more production which can alleviate inflation from the supply side.
2) Easing wage growth can take pressure off producers to raise prices.
Employment will probably return to the 200,000 to 300,000 pace we have seen for the last few months before January. The Federal Reserve this week revealed that it was adopting a slower rate hike approach of 0.25% per month to see how its cumulative rate hikes for the last year will play out in the labor market and broader economy. The hope is that this breathing room will reveal that the Fed’s previous actions to reduce the inflation rate have taken hold and employers will be able to operate with more certainty on prices and interest rates.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for January 2023 on Friday, February 3rd. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling a slight uptick in the number of new jobs, even though job additions are expected to slow over the next several months. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in January by 239,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.4% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for January, down 0.1% from its December rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
For Black History Month, we’re featuring three African Americans who have advanced tech for the greater good. From creating images that have been the source of joy for many, to helping humans reach space, these influencers shaped the tech industry.
Lisa Gelobter: If you’ve heard of animations known as GIFs and remember the early internet video technology called Shockwave, then you may already be familiar with Lisa’s work. Her parents were immigrants, and she knew growing up that she would have to work harder, longer, better, and faster than everyone else to rise above. Lisa paid for college by herself, working while attending Brown University and earning a computer science degree. Today, Lisa is the co-founder and CEO of tEQuitable, a platform designed to make workspaces more equitable.
Roy L. Clay, Sr.: Known as the Godfather of Silicon Valley, Roy’s consultation work with venture capital firm Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers helped many well-known computer companies get their start. Perhaps his greatest success was his role in the invention of Hewlett Packard’s first computer in 1966. In 1973, he became the first African-American elected to the Palo Alto City Council where he served until 1979. Roy graduated with an engineering degree from St. Louis University. Today, Roy is focused on using his experience to influence hiring based on skills, not degrees.
Katherine Johnson: A former engineer at NASA, Katherine’s work in mathematics enabled humans to reach outer space. In 1961, she performed trajectory analysis for Alan Shepard’s Freedom 7 mission. In 1962, she was responsible for the final code review that would launch John Glenn from Cape Canaveral. And in 2015, at the age of 97, she was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom from President Barack Obama. 2016’s theatrical Release, Hidden Figures, featured Katherine and her colleagues work in great detail.
Check back later this month for more articles in this series. On February 20th, we're featuring African American influencers in media. And on February 27th, we're highlighting a new way to support black-owned businesses throughout the country and abroad.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for December 2022 on Friday, January 6th. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose by 223,000 jobs. The jobs results ended up between the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 273,000 and the WSJ forecast of 200,000. Job growth has been slightly softening since August 2022. Additionally, with the exceptions of the outbursts in job creation in February and July 2022 depicted in the above chart, job growth has been gradually weakening since October 2021. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, below the Geographic Solutions and WSJ forecasts of 3.7%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job applications, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
Job creation was strongest in Education & Health Services (78,000) and Leisure & Hospitality (67,000). Job growth was flat in all other industries except Trade, Transportation, & Utilities and Construction which gained a combined 55,000 jobs.
While all sectors continued to grow in 2022, Leisure & Hospitality and Government are the only major sectors to remain below their pre-pandemic employment level.
The labor force participation rate increased to 62.3% from the previous month. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment declined to 6.5%.
The U.S. labor market expanded by 4.5 million jobs in 2022 as recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic continues. Despite this impressive achievement, it appears that the Federal Reserve’s drastic interest rate increases have managed to slow the pace of job growth throughout the year, albeit unevenly. Wage increases also seem to be tapering off. Both of those developments bode well for taming inflation and bringing price relief to consumers in 2023. The main question in the new year is will the Federal Reserve be able to accomplish this without pushing the labor market into a downturn.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for December 2022 on Friday, January 6th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
Geographic Solutions’ data is signaling a continuation of job growth between 250,000 and 300,000 experienced in each of the previous four months. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in December by 273,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.7% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for December, unchanged from its November rate. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job applications, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for November 2022 on Friday, December 2nd. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose by 263,000 jobs. The jobs report exceeded the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 152,000 and the WSJ forecast of 205,000. While the result is higher than expectations, it remains well within the prediction interval. Despite fluctuations among indicators pointing to a slower pace of job creation, initial estimates over the last three months have been remarkably locked in place with September reporting 263,000 initial new jobs, October reporting 261,000 initial new jobs, and November reporting 263,000 initial new jobs. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, below the Geographic Solutions forecast of 3.8%. The WSJ forecast of 3.7% matched the result. The unemployment rate forecast used internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
While all sectors continue to grow, Leisure & Hospitality and Government are the only major sectors to remain below their pre-pandemic employment level.
The labor force participation rate fell to 62.1% from the previous month. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment declined to 6.7%.
The main takeaway from the report is that the labor market is still hiring at a healthy pace, even as fewer people remain in the labor force and the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates to dampen economic activity. Perhaps the overriding factor for these substantial month-to-month job gains is that the number of job openings continues to far exceed the number of those unemployed.