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According to the monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) from The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), employment in the U.S. in November 2023 picked up to 199,000 additional jobs, while the unemployment rate declined to 3.7%.
THE LAYOUT:
• Job creation was strongest in the Education & Health Services (+99,000) and Government (+49,000) sectors, while Trade, Transportation & Utilities (-35,000) shed the most jobs.
• The labor force participation rate rose slightly to 62.8% in November. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment fell to 7.0%.
THE SIGNIFICANCE:
• A jobs report showing wage and employment gains along with a lower unemployment rate and a higher labor force participation rate is usually something to celebrate. However, the overall softening trend is likely to continue as past Federal Reserve interest rate hikes continue to exert their effects on the economy and household savings dwindle.
• Real wage gains improved last month but have moved sideways since the beginning of the year. Job openings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Geographic Solutions, Inc. have been declining for more than 15 months. This suggests the labor market is poised to weaken the next year but may be able to avoid a recession as a majority of economists in the WSJ survey are now predicting.