Insights and Perspectives

Insights and Perspectives

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Read the latest from Geographic Solutions.

Celebrating Working Women from the Past, Present, and Future

March is Women's History Month, a time to honor women’s contributions to history, culture, and society. The celebration of Women's History Month in the United States dates back to the early 20th century. In 1978, the first celebration of Women’s History Week took place in Sonoma, California. The movement continued to grow, and in 1987, Congress designated March as Women's History Month. Since then, each U.S. President has issued annual proclamations to honor and recognize the contributions of women to American history and society. As we reflect on the progress made, it is essential to shine a spotlight on women in the workforce, acknowledging the major strides women have made in the labor market, and addressing the challenges that they still face.  

A Historical Perspective on Women in the Labor Force 

The history of women in the workforce highlights their resilience and determination, from the early struggles for basic workplace rights to the present-day pursuit of leadership roles. Women have continuously overcome barriers and reshaped the professional landscape. In the early 20th century, most women in the United States did not work outside of the home and had limited education. According to Janet Yellen, previous chair of the Federal Reserve Board, in the 1930s, the number of women who entered the workforce began to grow with participation rates reaching 50% for single women by 1930 and 12% for married women. During this time, it was still the norm for married women to leave the workforce after marriage.  

Between the 1930s and 1970s, women’s participation in the economy continued to rise due to World War II, women's rights movements, and improved educational opportunities. According to Janet Yellen, by 1970, 50% of single women and 40% of married women were participating in the labor force. By the end of the 20th century, women's labor force participation continued to grow, but had not yet reached the same level as men. The labor force participation rate of prime working-age women reached just over 74%, compared with 93% for prime working-age men. Women were increasing their education and joining professions formally dominated by men such as those found in the medical, legal, and education fields. While the gender wage gap began to close, it persisted.   

Current Labor Market Barriers  

Today women play an essential role in our economy. While many women need to work for their economic security, it has also become a cultural norm for most households to have both partners engaged in the workforce. According to the Center for American Progress, the labor force participation rate for prime-age women hit 77%, exceeding the level in 2019 (76%). The COVID-19 pandemic had a negative impact on women in the workforce, but in post pandemic years, women’s employment has seen significant improvement thanks to a strong post-pandemic recovery. Women with children younger than 18 saw an improvement in employment with 993,000 more mothers working in December 2022 than one year prior. Mothers of children younger than age 5 have seen employment levels recover more slowly than mothers of school-age children, with employment standing at just over 99% of the pre-pandemic level. Despite progress, women with minor children at home face reduced employment opportunities, especially those with the youngest children. Gender gaps in employment rates between mothers and fathers remain significant. 

Women still face gender pay gaps despite recent progress, men outearn women within every age group. According to the Center of American Progress, among younger workers, ages 16–24, women’s median weekly earnings are about 8% lower than men’s. The gap is even larger for prime-age workers, with women earning 16% less than men. Earnings gaps are more pronounced for many women of color due to racial bias in the workplace. This wage gap has significant consequences for long-term economic security, contributing to higher rates of poverty in old age, especially for widows, divorced women, or women who never got married. 

The Future of Women in the Workforce 

The future of women in the workforce is promising, as women continue to break down gender barrier and push for ongoing efforts to promote inclusivity. In the last few years there has been a growing emphasis on diversity and companies are recognizing the value of women's talents and perspectives across all industries. Initiatives for equal opportunities, mentorship programs, and family-friendly policies are becoming more prevalent, creating an environment that allows women to grow professionally. 

Remote work has opened more opportunities for women to work from any location giving them more flexibility to seamlessly balance their career aspiration with family life. Women are also obtaining higher levels of education setting them up for leadership positions, higher paying jobs, and roles within male dominated fields. However, barriers still exist including the gender wage gap, stereotypes, and biases. Women must overcome these barriers to create a truly equal workforce. Advocacy for women's rights and ongoing commitment to creating inclusive workplaces will be crucial in shaping a future where women can continue to thrive. The evolving labor market has the opportunity for a future where diversity and gender equality are not just ideals but can be an attainable reality. 

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The Labor Market Report is derived from two monthly surveys from The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that measure labor market trends: The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey and The Current Population Survey (CPS).

The U.S. Economy Gained 275,000 Jobs in February

Key Takeaway: Job creation finished close to the Geographic Solutions, Inc. expectations of 258,000 jobs and well above the WSJ Survey expectations of 198,000 jobs. 

 
THE EMPLOYMENT LANDSCAPE
According to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report, employment in the U.S. in February 2024 gained 275,000 additional jobs, while the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%. Despite downward revisions in December and January, employment ended February with the best 3-month performance since the April-June 2023 period. 


 JOB CREATION
Job creation was strongest in the Private Education & Health Services (+85,000), Leisure & Hospitality (+58,000), and Government (+52,000) sectors, while no sectors saw significant job loss. Leisure & Hospitality employment is 0.1% below its total in February 2020. It is on track to surpass its pre-pandemic peak next month and would be the last major sector to achieve this. 


 
Bureau of Labor Statistics

Bureau of Labor Statistics


UNEMPLOYMENT LANDSCAPE
The U-6 unemployment rate nudged up to 7.3% in February from 7.2% in January. The rise in both types of unemployment rates (U-3 & U-6) with an unchanged labor force participation rate sends a different signal from the employment numbers. It shows a weakening labor market.
 

 

The U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job.

REAL WAGES
Real wages have consistently increased since September 2023. Inflation data will not be released until next week but if prices rose similarly to the previous four months, real wages declined in February. 


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Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast and unemployment rate forecast from internal data on the number of job openings/searchers/applications and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions' state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts for the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate. These are the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from The Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly surveys that measure labor market trends, The Current Employment Statistics (CES; also known as "the payroll" or "the establishment" survey) and The Current Population Survey (CPS; also known as "the household survey").

GEOGRAPHIC SOLUTIONS PREDICTS:

Jobs are predicted to increase in February by 258,000, in keeping with the strengthening trend seen since October last year.

 

The Chart shows shaded ranges that represent 80% and 90% probabilities of the actual employment result.
Geographic Solutions' employment forecast is represented by the horizontal blue line to the right.

In Comparison:

Job Creation in the 1st quarters since 2021 has outperformed other quarters. January’s strong result of 353,000 indicate that is continuing in 2024.

GEOGRAPHIC SOLUTIONS PREDICTS:
The unemployment rate will increase to 3.8% for February, which is slightly higher than the 3.7% we saw in January.

This chart shows shaded ranges that represent 80% and 90% probabilities of the actual unemployment rate result.
Geographic Solutions' unemployment rate forecast is represented by the horizontal blue line to the right.

On Friday, March 8th, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release their two monthly surveys,
The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey and The Current Population Survey (CPS).

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

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Black History Month: Black Women Leading the Way in STEM

In honor of Black History Month and the International Day of Women and Girls in Science on February 11, it’s important to recognize and celebrate the stories of Black women who have been essential in shaping the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM).  

In this blog, we’ll tell the inspiring stories of four trailblazing woman and share the impact they’ve made in their respective fields.  

Jedidah IslerJedidah Isler: Dr. Isler’s dream of becoming an astrophysicist started as a young girl, when her sister gave her a telescope for her birthday. While the odds were stacked against her, with only 18 Black women in the United States ever earning a Ph.D. in a physics-related discipline, Dr. Isler never gave up and pursued her dream. According to Jedidah, the influential women in her life, including her mother and several notable astrophysicists, contributed to shaping her identity. Dr. Isler didn't have the opportunity to pursue astronomy until her doctoral program, as her undergraduate and master's programs lacked astronomy majors. When she finally had the chance to pursue astronomy as a core course of study, she describes the experience as amazing, confirming her belief that she had made the right decision in pursuing astronomy. In 2014, Dr. Isler made history by becoming the first African American woman to receiver her Ph.D. in Astrophysics from Yale University. Despite her love for astrophysics, she acknowledges the barriers faced by young women of color in science. Dr. Isler is actively involved in addressing these barriers, she collaborates with organizations like the American Astronomical Society’s Commission on the Status on Minorities in Astronomy. Today, she is an Assistant Professor of Astrophysics at Dartmouth College and a nationally recognized speaker who advocates for inclusive STEM education. Dr. Isler also passionately promotes inclusion and empowerment in STEM fields through her nonprofit organization, The SeRCH foundation.  

Gilda Barabino: Dr. Barabino excelled in math and science from an early age. She initially considered going to medical school to become a doctor but ultimately decided to pursue a bachelor’s degree in chemistry from Xavier University in New Orleans. After completing her undergraduate degree, she went on to graduate school where she became the first African American student admitted to Rice University to pursue a Ph.D. in chemical engineering. Dr. Barabino’s career hasn’t been without challenges. Being an underrepresented minority in the STEM field, Dr. Barabino experienced countless obstacles, such as being isolated and marginalized. Dr. Barabino says, “Persistence and confidence are extremely important. Don’t be deterred. Seek out and use mentors and advisors that are willing to help and support your career’s success.” Despite facing the challenges of being a pioneer in this solo venture, Dr. Barbino didn’t let that deter her from pursuing her dream of becoming a biomedical engineer. Today, Dr. Barabino is the second president of Olin College of Engineering. She is an internationally recognized thought leader and a sought-after speaker and consultant on race, ethnicity, and gender in science and engineering, with a focus on creating cultures and climates that support a sense of belonging. 

Evelyn Boyd Granville: Dr. Granville was raised by a single working-class mother during a time when racial segregation was prominent. Early on, she attended segregated schools and eventually graduated as valedictorian from Dunbar High School. With the support of her aunt and a scholarship, she enrolled in Smith College in Massachusetts where she planned to pursue a degree in French. However, her fascination with mathematics, physics, and astronomy led her to earn a Bachelor of Mathematics degree in 1945. Determined to challenge societal norms and pave the way for aspiring mathematicians, she continued her education, obtaining a master's degree in physics and mathematics from Yale University in 1946, becoming one of the first African American women to do so. Throughout her career, Dr. Granville made significant contributions to mathematics, particularly in numerical analysis and computing. Her mathematical insights and pioneering work in computing orbital mechanics paved the way for space exploration and NASA's early missions. Despite facing challenges as an African American woman in a male-dominated field during an era of racial segregation, Dr. Granville displayed resilience and unwavering determination. Beyond her professional achievements, she was known for her humility, grace, and commitment to social justice. Her dedication to excellence and equality served as an inspiration, demonstrating that with perseverance, one could overcome any obstacle. 

Lisha Polzine: Lisha has fearlessly confronted challenges in the tech field head-on especially being a woman of color in this industry. Her journey and unwavering determination contribute to the ongoing mission for increased diversity and inclusion in STEM. Lisha began her career as a deskside support personnel in a male-dominated field of Information Technology. For nine years, she meticulously managed tasks ranging from software installations and upgrades to troubleshooting network issues. She transitioned to a Quality Control Analyst, later advancing into a Software Quality Control Analyst role. One of her notable achievements was crafting a comprehensive document outlining internal processes and standards, pivotal in her company's journey to International Organization for Standardization (ISO) certification, signifying adherence to international service level benchmarks. Her documentation and interviews played a crucial role in achieving ISO compliance for her company. Her next career pursuit led her to become a Software Quality Assurance Analyst, dedicating 13 years to ensuring the integrity of proprietary software, this is crucial to helping emergency first response centers operate across the United States and international clients. Lisha states that her greatest adventure was joining the Automation Testing team within those 13 years. Lisha is currently employed as a Quality Assurance Engineer at Geographical Solutions, where she supports proprietary web applications for local and state-level services, championing technological initiatives that enhance the quality of life. As a woman of color, she hopes her work and contributions have made an impact within the technology and innovations landscape. Despite having moments of doubt and at times not feeling empowered, her inner determination-built resilience, enabling her to achieve what was needed.

Because Black History Month and International Day of Women and Girls in Science are only celebrated for a short time period throughout a year, it’s important that we share these women’s stories to not only educate ourselves but to also celebrate their accomplishments and impact to STEM. They set inspiring examples for future generations and pave the way for a more inclusive future in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics for all.  

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The Labor Market Report is derived from two monthly surveys from The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that measure labor market trends: The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey and The Current Population Survey (CPS).

THE SIGNIFICANCE

What:

The U.S. economy gained 353,000 jobs in January while the labor force and unemployment rate remained unchanged. Job creation far exceeded the Geographic Solutions, Inc. expectations of 255,000 jobs and the WSJ Survey expectations of 185,000 jobs.

Why:

Strong consumer spending has continued to lift the labor market, despite layoff announcements from a handful of prominent companies. The only discouraging sign is that average weekly hours fell to 34.1. Excluding March 2020 when the pandemic began, that is the lowest reading for this indicator since June 2010.

When:

We expect a softening trend to establish itself in the coming months as past Federal Reserve interest rate hikes continue to exert their effects on the economy and household savings dwindle.

 


THE LANDSCAPE

According to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report, employment in the U.S. in January 2024 gained 353,000 additional jobs, while the unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%It was the largest monthly gain since January 2023. Job additions have accelerated for three consecutive months.

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Job creation was strongest in the Private Education & Health Services (+112,000), Professional & Business Services (+74,000), and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (+64,000) sectors, while no major sectors lost jobs.

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After posting no net new jobs in December, the Trade, Transportation & Utilities saw one of the largest increases in January.

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The labor force participation rate held steady in January after dropping 0.3% to 62.5% in December; the largest one-month decline since January 2021.

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The U-6 unemployment rate nudged up to 7.2% in January from 7.1% in December. This is another indication that some part-time workers desire a full-time position.

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The U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job.

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As mentioned earlier, weekly hours are down but wage increases have grown large enough to improve real income (hours x wages adjusted for inflation) for the employed.

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Celebrating Contributions to the Workplace Throughout Black History Month

In 2024, it has never been more important to recognize and honor Black History Month – especially in the workforce development industry. The key is to not simply check a box with an awareness campaign, but to realize that the workplace wouldn't be the same without the contributions of African Americans. Some of the most successful and evolving organizations are those that take action by investing in Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs, keeping these topics at the forefront of their core values.

Black History Month is a time to recognize workplace pioneers like Maggie Lena Walker, the first Black woman in the United States to charter a bank, and serve as its president, in 1903. It’s also a time to learn from Mary McLeod Bethune, who was born to former slaves in South Carolina in 1875 but rose to appointment by President Franklin Roosevelt to serve as Director of Negro Affairs of the National Youth Administration. At the time, this made her the highest-ranking Black woman in government, and the only woman of color at the United Nation’s founding conference.

The contributions of these individuals played an important role in 1925 when Harvard-educated historian Carter G. Woodson conceived and announced Negro History Week. A year later, the event had its first celebration with an overwhelming response. Scholars of many colors stepped forward to endorse this effort. This became the basis for Black History Month as we know it today.

Throughout the month of February, we will honor several Black individuals who have overcome, led, and left incredible impressions on American culture. As a company, we strive to advance equity and embrace diversity in the workplace, year-round. Whether that be celebrating the diversity and contributions of our individual team members or providing equal employment access and career resources to job seekers across the country, we hope to encourage, inspire, and support. Let this also be a reminder of the work that lies in the months and years ahead, and the possibilities of the greatness to come.

“Success is to be measured not so much by the position that one has reached in life as by the obstacles which he has overcome while trying to succeed.” —Booker T. Washington

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Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast and unemployment rate forecast from internal data on the number of job openings/searchers/applications and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions' state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced the following forecasts for the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate. These are the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from The Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly surveys that measure labor market trends, The Current Employment Statistics (CES; also known as "the payroll" or "the establishment" survey) and The Current Population Survey (CPS; also known as "the household survey").


GEOGRAPHIC SOLUTIONS PREDICTS:
Jobs will increase in January by 255,000 in keeping with the strengthening trend seen since October last year.

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The Chart shows shaded ranges that represent 80% and 90% probabilities of the actual employment result.
Geographic Solutions' employment forecast is represented by the horizontal blue line to the right.

In Comparison:
Job Creation averaged 225,000 per month in 2023. Strong consumer activity is expected to continue in the early part of this year and contributed to the higher estimate for January employment.


GEOGRAPHIC SOLUTIONS PREDICTS:
The unemployment rate will
 level out at 3.8% for January, just above its December rate of 3.7%.

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This chart shows shaded ranges that represent 80% and 90% probabilities of the actual unemployment rate result.
Geographic Solutions' unemployment rate forecast is represented by the horizontal blue line to the right.

 

To Be Noted:
Last month the labor force participation rate had its largest one-month drop in almost 3 years, preventing a rise in the unemployment rate. That is unlikely to be repeated in January.


On Friday, February 2nd, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release their two monthly surveys,
The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey and The Current Population Survey (CPS).

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.
 

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According to the monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) from The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), employment in the U.S. in December 2023 gained 216,000 additional jobs, while the unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%.

 

THE LAYOUT:

• Job creation was strongest in the Education & Health Services (+74,000), Government (+52,000), and Leisure & Hospitality (+40,000) sectors, while Trade, Transportation & Utilities was the weakest among the major sectors with no new jobs.
 

• The labor force participation rate dropped 0.3% to 62.5% in December; the largest one-month decline since January 2021. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment nudged up to 7.1%.

THE SIGNIFICANCE:

• While the positive December report is somewhat dampened by the decline in the labor force participation rate, the calendar year performance has been much more upbeat than predicted.  Employment and real wages expanded, leading to real private-sector workers earning 0.5% more in 2023 than the previous year.  However, we expect a softening trend to establish itself in the coming months as past Federal Reserve interest rate hikes continue to exert their effects on the economy and household savings dwindle.
 

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for December 2023 on Friday, January 5th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate. 

As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in December by 231,000, a slight pick-up even as Geographic Solutions sees slowing job growth over the next six months. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings and job applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. 
 

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.8% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for December, a slight increase from its November rate of 3.7%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job applications, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.

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According to the monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) from The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), employment in the U.S. in November 2023 picked up to 199,000 additional jobs, while the unemployment rate declined to 3.7%.

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THE LAYOUT:

• Job creation was strongest in the Education & Health Services (+99,000) and Government (+49,000) sectors, while Trade, Transportation & Utilities (-35,000) shed the most jobs.
 

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• The labor force participation rate rose slightly to 62.8% in November. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment fell to 7.0%.

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THE SIGNIFICANCE:

• A jobs report showing wage and employment gains along with a lower unemployment rate and a higher labor force participation rate is usually something to celebrate. However, the overall softening trend is likely to continue as past Federal Reserve interest rate hikes continue to exert their effects on the economy and household savings dwindle.
 

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• Real wage gains improved last month but have moved sideways since the beginning of the year. Job openings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Geographic Solutions, Inc. have been declining for more than 15 months. This suggests the labor market is poised to weaken the next year but may be able to avoid a recession as a majority of economists in the WSJ survey are now predicting.