Insights and Perspective

 

Insights and Perspective

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Read the latest from Geographic Solutions.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for January 2022 on Friday, February 4th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate. 

January is the first full month that the economy has had to weather the effects of the Covid-19 Omicron variant. While this strain appears to produce milder symptoms its high rate of transmissibility appears to have led to net job loss for the month. However, it would also not be surprising to see job growth which has been the case since December 2020 despite the emergence of two variants. 

Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL). As seen in the chart below, we predict jobs declined in December by 179,000.

Portrayed in the chart below is the 4.1% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for January, a rise from the 3.9% rate in December. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job severances, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

 After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.



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