Insights and Perspective

 

Insights and Perspective

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GSI Labor Market Forecast: December 2021

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for December 2021 on Friday, January 7th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate. 

December is the first month that we will see the effects of the Covid-19 Omicron variant on the jobs market. While this strain appears to produce milder symptoms its high rate of transmissibility will have a dampening impact on job creation. The degree to which it will hold back the labor market is difficult to ascertain, especially given the sporadic performance we have seen in the previous months. 

Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL). As seen in the chart below, we predict job growth in December of 493,000.

Portrayed in the chart below is the 4.1% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for December, a decrease from the 4.2% rate in November. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job severances, job searchers, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

 After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.



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