Insights and Perspective

 

Insights and Perspective

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GSI Labor Market Forecast: November 2021

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for November 2021 on Friday, December 3rd. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate. 

The better-than-expected jobs report in October as well as large upward revisions in August and September are signs of optimism heading into the report release for November. Job growth was widespread across the private sector in October. Most industries should build on those gains in November, and the seasonal abnormalities in the public-sector from local education employment should have been ironed out by now. 

Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL). As seen in the chart below, we predict job growth in November of 613,000.

Portrayed in the chart below is the 4.4% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for November, a decrease from the 4.6% rate in October. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job severances, job applications, job searchers, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

 After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.



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