Insights and Perspective

 

Insights and Perspective

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GSI Labor Market Forecast: September 2021

By Phillip Sprehe

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for September 2021 on Friday, October 8th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate. 

Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings and job searchers. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).  As seen in the chart below, we predict job growth in September of 461,000.

Portrayed in the chart below is the 5.3% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for September, an increase from the 5.2% rate in August. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job severances, job searchers, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

 After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.



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