Insights and Perspective

 

Insights and Perspective

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GSI Labor Market Forecast: April 2022

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for April 2022 on Friday, May 6th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate. 

The labor market has been running hot for several months, but it is uncertain when increasing wage gains are going to have a dampening effect on employment. Geographic Solutions’ data is pointing to another strong month of job growth in April.  As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in April by 580,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job searchers, job applications, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL). 

Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.5% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for April, a decline from the March rate of 3.6%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job applications, job severances, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.

After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.



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