Insights and Perspective

 

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GSI Labor Market Forecast: August 2021

By Phillip Sprehe

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for August 2021 on Friday, September 3rd. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate. 

August employment should be dampened by two main factors. The first is the spread of the Delta variant. The other is the record-setting employment growth in in Local Government Education in July which likely depressed the seasonally adjusted results in August. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job severances, and job applications. As seen in the chart below, August employment is projected to grow by 506,000 jobs.

Portrayed in the chart below is the 5.3% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for August, a slight fall from the 5.4% rate in July. The unemployment rate forecast used internal data on job openings and job severances.

 After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.



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